This article
is just to provide some background on the current state of the independence
movement in Scotland. I’ll keep my contribution to Saturday’s meeting to just
two themes that I think come out of this. Firstly “Is there a left case for
independence”. And secondly “Are there any lessons from the Scottish
experience for LU Wales”. Hopefully the discussion can then focus on
how the LU Wales Manifesto could be used to help shape a radical left platform
within the Welsh independence movement.
Political Context
Since early
2020 there has been a significant shift in Scottish public opinion in favour of
independence. 20
consecutive polls have shown support for independence above 50%, the
SNP on course to win a significant majority in May’s Holyrood elections and a continued
decline in electoral support for the three unionist parties. At the same time Nicola
Sturgeon’s personal approval ratings have risen across all shades of political
opinion.
There are
probably two factors which have tipped the balance in favour of independence.
Firstly Brexit reinforced the “democratic deficit” in Scotland. There is a wide
perception, even among traditionally union supporting voters, that the country
has been forced to leave the EU against the expressed will of two thirds of the
electorate and that this will damage the economy, jobs and living standards.
Secondly the Scottish Government’s handling of the pandemic. Both these factors are contingent and quite
possibly transient. Especially the later which is based largely on Nicola
Sturgeon’s undoubted skills as a popular communicator, and apparent competence
in contrast to Johnson’s homicidal libertarianism. Pandemic outcomes have in
fact been broadly comparable to those of the UK as a whole. Therefore it is fair to say that support for independence
still remains “soft” and finely balanced.
Against this
background 2021 is likely to be a crucial year for independence. Developments
within the SNP, the wider independence movement outside parliament and the role
of the left within it, will all be central to the outcome. As will the response
of the Johnson regime to the perceived “Scottish Problem”.
The SNP: Strategy and Division
Following
the 2014 referendum and the 2015 general election landslide, the SNP’s
membership base expanded massively. Drawn mainly from grassroots RIC members,
Yes group activists and Scottish Labour supporters disillusioned by the party’s
“Better Together” alliance with an extremely reactionary Scottish Tory party.
The SNP has retained much of that mass base and remains the second largest
party in the UK. Its popularity is indisputable and it looks set for a massive
victory in May.
However
anyone following recent press commentary will know that deep divisions have
emerged within the party under Sturgeon’s leadership. These are now spilling
out acrimoniously into the public domain. Much press attention has focussed on the
Alex Salmond affair and the heated debates around the Gender Reassignment Act
and Hate Crimes Bill. Beneath this however are some long term political
differences over the strategy for achieving independence and the SNP’s social
and economic vision for an independent Scotland.
Despite its progressive social
policies, many of which are more rhetorical than real, the SNP leadership has
increasingly moved in a conservative direction. It has always been highly
centralising, and increasingly it has restricted internal party democracy, marginalising
its activist base and creating a tight knit group of “insiders” comprising
trusted ministers and political advisers. Many with links to various strands
within the Scottish business, financial and legal establishment.
The implications of this strategy are
reflected in the Scottish Government’s most recent economic blue print for
independence, the 2018 Growth
Commission Report, written by an ex-banker and updated to embrace
Covid recovery by the Duke of Buccleuch’s estate manager. It embodies a
mainstream neoliberal approach albeit with a green tinge. It openly advocates a decade of austerity to
reduce an anticipated fiscal deficit. The focus is very much on placating the
financial markets and meeting the EU “fiscal compact” rules. Ironically,
ignoring a central requirement for joining the EU, it proposes keeping sterling
as its currency and in consequence handing monetary policy to the Bank of
England and the Westminster Treasury. This whole approach has been widely
criticised within the party amongst grassroots activist who do not relish
selling austerity on the doorstep during a covid scarred referendum campaign!
Austerity politics has been widely discredited by the pandemic and even the
Tories have pumped unprecedented spending into the economy. Yet recently the
SNP leadership have doubled down on the Growth Commission proposals and refused
to amendment them.
The second major difference within the
party has emerged over the strategy for a new referendum. The party leadership
have always been insistent that only a legally sanctioned referendum would
provide “international legitimacy” to independence. Effectively this hands the
granting of a referendum to Westminster under section 30 of the Scotland Act.
Johnson has made it clear he will reject another referendum, and Labour also
reject Scotland’s right to self-determination. Despite hard-line Westminster
resistance, Sturgeon has always argued that a victory in May on a manifesto
that proposes to organise a second referendum will be a clear expression of the
democratic will of Scotland, which cannot be ignored.
Both these strategies result from a
cautious and conservative desire to make independence palatable to finance
capital and middle class “soft no” voters. They take for granted the majority
working class support for the Party built up in 2014. They embody a vision of a
future Scotland where divergence from the current political, economic and
constitutional settlement is minimal. A vision correctly characterised by
critics as “independence-lite” or “constitutional nationalism”. Needless to say
this approach has generated enormous frustration within both the SNP activist
base and the wider independence movement. Frustration that has recently
resulted in a significant victory for the left inside the Party, with the
Common Weal group of members winning a number of seats on the NEC behind a much
more radical eco-socialist programme. The People’s Manifesto is based around 5
key demands: a “people centred economy”, housing reform, a National Care
Service, “a right to food enshrined in law” and a programme of “local democracy
and community empowerment”. These are immediate post pandemic demands and do
not require independence for implementation. (Kerevan). The grassroots uprising
within the SNP has also increased pressure on the Scottish Government to use
the Holyrood elections as a plebiscite on independence rather than wait for Johnson
to agree a referendum. Nicola Sturgeon and the leadership group have vigorously
resisted this. Instead they have announced an 11 stage “plan B” in the event of
Johnson continuing to refuse a referendum. This ultimately envisages a legal
challenge and the whole question of Scotland’s future being decided in the UK
Supreme Court.
The Left and the Wider Independence Movement
in Scotland
The Radical Independence Campaign
(RIC) played a central role in the independence campaign running up to 2014. It
was instrumental in building working class support for independence through its
mass canvassing of working class communities in the main urban centres. It
brought activists together from across the left in a series of extremely large conferences
to debate strategy and tactics and develop the 5 eco-socialist and democratic
principles around which its campaigns were organised. It organised mass voter
registration drives which ensured the highest turn-out in Scottish electoral
history, reaching deeply into sections of society that rarely voted; especially
young people and those living in the most deprived areas. In the last few
months before the vote, its activism and mobilisation spilled over into the
wider SNP controlled Yes Campaign. The whole independence movement started to
take on the appearance of a mass social movement demanding a more democratic
and equal Scotland and an end to the politics of free markets and austerity.
Since 2014 RIC has declined
politically. Much of its activist base went into the SNP following its general
election triumph in 2015. An attempt was
made to build a left party (RISE) out of the remnants of RIC, which failed
dramatically in the 2016 Holyrood elections. A conference was held in 2019 to
revive RIC which was well attended but failed to re-start the campaign. At the
RIC AGM in January this year, major divisions emerged over a motion from the
original leadership to wind up the organisation. Local groups of RIC activists
who had continued to function supported relaunching the campaign with updated
principles to meet the challenges of the new political situation. Comrades can
find the substance of these debates here,
here
and here.
In many ways the squabble over the future of RIC shows that the Scottish Left
has not been immune to the general decline and weakness of the UK Left to which
Steve Ryan alluded in his recent LU Wales article. The RIC debacle also
reflects the legacy of Lexit within the pro-independence left, which has led
some comrades to abandon internationalism except rhetorically. Instead they
have espoused a left variant of economic nationalism indicated by a continued
focus on the EU institutions as pillars of global neoliberal capitalism. A
position which totally ignores Scottish working class opposition to Brexit.
Events in the wider Scottish independence
movement have been much more positive however, and require the pro-independence
left to urgently address the need for a united organisation. Following the
independence referendum in 2014, “All Under One Banner” was formed by a group
of grassroots activists mainly from outside the SNP. Their marches and
demonstration grew rapidly and during 2018/19 attracted huge numbers (200,000
in Edinburgh in October 2019). Support took on an increasingly radical and
working class complexion, including trade union involvement. AUOB has this week launched a new membership
based national independence organisation: Now Scotland.
This
is based on the Catalan ANC,
which has played a vital role in promoting a progressive vision of Catalan
independence post-Franco. And has been instrumental in maintaining grass roots
resistance to the Spanish State’s reactionary crackdown following the Catalan
declaration of independence. Now Scotland is grassroots based
and encourages the development of local, community and workplace goups. It will
also organise national and regional assemblies, demonstrations and civil
disobedience if necessary as the movement develops. It has a broadly progressive
set of principles although as yet it has no detailed “programme” for
independence. Importantly it allows affiliations from both existing and new pro-indy
groups and organisations.
As the pandemic lifts Now Scotland is
set to become the focus of the independence movement outside the SNP, and it is
vital that all strands of the pro-independence left organise within it to help
rebuild mass working class support and a radical alternative to the
constitutional nationalism of the SNP leadership.
The Fragmentation of the British State?
Len recently posted a link on the LU
Wales messenger group to an article from RS21.
In it the authors claim: “It’s more than likely that the British state will
fracture in the coming decade”. Undoubtedly the break-up of the British state
could open up the prospect of progressive change in the UK and across Europe.
It would also pose a global challenge to international imperialism. Precisely
because of this the “unionist” British state will pull out all the stops to
prevent it happening. This is even more the case in the era of post Brexit
“global Britain”. Johnson’s reactionary nationalist project loses all coherence
if the UK fragments.
Recent events indicate the Tories and
the ruling class are increasingly worried but unsure how to respond to growing
tensions within the UK. They are combining direct attacks on devolution (eg under
the Single Market Bill and with targeted public spending such as Sunak’s free
ports.) along with a Westminster campaign to raise the profile of the Union in
Scotland. Examples of this include Johnson’s recent visit during lockdown, in the face of
Scottish Government opposition, the revamped Downing St “Union Unit” and the
increasingly worried chatter from pro-union commentators such as George
Osborne. Opposition is of course not just confined to the Johnson government. Starmer’s
Labour Party looks set to reprise “Better Together” unionism; combining
progressive patriotism with a firm rejection of Scottish self-determination. Gordon
Brown has once again been wheeled out to float his, largely discredited notions,
of “federalism”, apparently following discussions with both Michael Gove and
Keir Starmer. Such moves place Scottish self-determination in the hands of
mainly English voters who have consistently reject federalism.
The
pro-independence left must develop a firm response to these attacks. This will
certainly require an eco-socialist programme that takes on board the current
triple crisis of international capitalism (economic, ecological and
epidemiological). A programme that stresses the centrality of international
solidarity and collective action in building a fairer, more equal country
embodying real advances for the working class.
But this
will not be enough. Independence cannot happen and that vision will not be
achieved without a clear break with the unionist British State and the atrophied
democracy embodied in its constitutional structures. These have been a
source of ruling class power for centuries, and will remain to undermine even
the most progressive reform programmes, unless the left articulates a clear grass
roots republican alternative. An alternative where sovereignty genuinely
resides with the people, and democracy is deepened and strengthened within
communities and workplaces.
Additional references:
Kerevan George: Why the Holyrood Election is not
only about our independence. (The National 08/02/2021)
Anderson Perry: Ukania Perpetua? New Left Review
125 (Sept/Oct 2020)
Barnett Anthony: The Lure of Greatness (part 3
Brexitannia). Kindle Edition
