Since the
referendum the debate on the UK radical left between those who supported a
“Remain” position and those arguing to leave the EU has continued. “Lexit” proponents, claim by and large, that
their predictions and strategy have been vindicated. Typical of this was the SWP’s assertion in the
immediate aftermath that:
“The vote to leave the
European Union (EU) last week hasn’t just plunged the Tories and British ruling
class into crisis. It has struck a blow against US imperialism and the EU
bosses’ club, which imposes austerity across the continent.” (Socialist Worker
29/6/2016)
Similarly Counterfire claimed, in equally
triumphalist tones, that “the rich and
powerful …have suffered a massive reverse”.
And that the vote heralded “an intensification of class struggle.” The
Socialist Party capped even this by predicting the probable “collapse
of the Tory Party”. And the result
has been widely characterised within left leave circles as a “working class
revolt”. This Blog examines such claims in so far as that is possible so soon
after the referendum.
Most left remain
supporters argued before the referendum that the Lexit case was based on blind
hope rather than serious political analysis.
This was not a referendum called by a radical left government in the face
of anti-democratic EU imposed austerity as was the situation in Greece during
the Oxi referendum. The UK vote was not
about whether the European Union was a “businessman’s club”. Something no one on the radical left would
dispute. Rather it was a referendum called
by an overconfident prime minister as a way of managing Tory party divisions
and seeing off a UKIP challenge. It was always going to be a debate between two
factions of the Tory party divided over their approach to the EU and
globalisation. As a result Lexit was universally
ignored and consequently unable to stop a massive shift to the right amongst
poorer working class communities and the resulting rise in racism and nationalism.
It was a dreadful mistake by those left groups involved.
Brexit: A
Working Class Revolt?
Lexit
supporters place much emphasis on polling by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft to justify
two major claims. Firstly that the Leave
vote was an uprising by the poorest section of the working class and secondly
that racism and xenophobia, though, part of the picture, were less important
than anti-establishment anger and frustration after years of political and
economic neglect. For instance “a
Socialist Party reporter” argued that the data was clear evidence that:
“The ‘Leave’ vote
represented a working class revolt against the establishment. While there were
differences in attitudes geographically, among different age groups, ethnic
backgrounds and so on, the key determinant of how people voted was social
class. “(Socialist Party
Website)
Whilst
Charlie Kimber (SWP National Secretary) has written:
“There was a strong
class element. A detailed poll by Lord Ashcroft showed the AB social group (professionals,
managers, lecturers and teachers) were the only social group where a majority,
57 percent, voted to Remain. C1s (most white collar workers) divided fairly
evenly. But nearly two thirds of C2s (skilled manual workers) Ds (other manual
workers) and Es (pensioners, unemployed, people on benefits) voted leave.”
Others
drilled down into the Ashcroft data to discern evidence that this working class
revolt was not primarily driven by racism but was indeed a radical revolt:
“Many who supported
Remain, including left wingers and liberals, argue the result was fuelled by
racism over immigration. But the idea that Leave was a racist vote by the
“white working class” doesn’t add up. The three towns outside of London where
the “White British” population is not a majority produced Leave votes. So in
Luton 45 percent of the population is “White British”—it voted Leave by 56.5
percent on a 66.2 percent turnout. Similarly in Slough 34.52 percent of the
population is “White British”—people there also voted Leave by 54 percent on a
62.1 percent turnout. Meanwhile in Leicester 45 percent of the population is
“White British” and 48.9 percent voted for Leave on a 65 percent turnout.
People in London backed
Remain more strongly, but Leave still had strong support among many working
class people in the capital.”
Using
the Ashcroft data in this way is tantamount to abandoning Marxism as a means of
analysing the class struggle. Struggle
is always contradictory and dynamic. Using static bourgeois social categories
to determine the class nature of the Brexit vote simply emphasises divisions
within the working class. It is part of the ABC of socialism, that capitalism
creates such divisions; gender, ethnic origin, nationality, access to
educational opportunities, skill, income, part-time/ full time, permanent /
temporary employment and a whole range of other subdivisions. The role of socialists is to break down these
sectional divides not laud one section of the working class and demonise
others.
Without
getting bogged down in Lexit psephology, it is worth pointing out that the ABC1
social categories include large numbers of teachers, nurses, doctors, college
lecturers and other public sector workers.
Many of them have been involved in significant strike action recently,
fighting pay cuts, defending conditions of employment and opposing redundancies.
In other words they are at the forefront of the resistance to austerity. For Marxists they are as much a part of the
modern working class as unskilled factory workers and service sector workers on
zero hours’ contracts. Yet Ashcroft’s poll showed they overwhelmingly voted
Remain. As did most trade union members and members of the Labour Party. As did
voters in every Scottish local authority (including the most deprived areas of
Glasgow and the central belt). It is
also a strange working class revolt that does not include major working class
centres such as West Belfast, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Bristol and
London. An even stranger one that does
not include two thirds of Asian voters, 73% of Black voters and 75% of young
voters the vast majority of whom are working class by any definition. This leaves aside the fact that 2m plus working
class EU migrants were denied a vote.
There is no doubt that those in social category C2DE
voted by a margin of 2:1 for leave. Leaving aside that the C2 category includes
some self-employed and small employers whose categorisation as “working class”
is tenuous, it is obvious that a large part of this vote was driven by a desire
to kick back against the establishment after years of economic and political
neglect under both Tory and New Labour governments. The geography of the largest leave votes speaks
for itself. (http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/)
But this was only part of the story. Even a
conservative extrapolation from the Ashcroft data shows fairly convincingly
that the C2, D, E vote accounted for just short of 40% of the Leave vote. The
bulk of the leave vote came from the wealthier sections of society. Some we
would include in any definition of the working class, some we would not.
( Andrew Flood. http://links.org.au/node/4739)
So any serious analysis of the nature of the
referendum result gives us a picture of a working class split down the middle
between Leave and Remain. Not a particularly revealing conclusion but one that lends
no support to the notion that the Leave vote was an unambiguous working class
revolt. However to the extent that the leave vote was a revolt of the poorest
sections of the working class, the real question must be under whose leadership
and what ideas lie behind it? Neil
Faulkner answers this succinctly in a recent article on Left Unity’s website:
“The Brexit vote is a victory for right-wing leadership of the discontent. It is therefore a victory for the racism with which the entire Brexit campaign was laced. There is a fundamental difference between workers being led by right-wingers and racists, and workers acting for themselves in a mass movement based on class unity and class struggle.”
It is
counterproductive if not delusional to try and sweep this under the carpet in
order to justify wildly optimistic pre-referendum predictions. No one on the left would suggest that all
Leave voters are racist or even that the majority of those expressing
anti-migrant and xenophobic sentiments are irredeemably committed racist
right-wingers. Racism is endemic in capitalism. In all sections of society not
just the working class. It has a material base in the sense that people are forced to
compete for jobs, homes, and public services. Working class
communities impoverished, divided and angered by years of economic policies designed
to suck wealth into a privileged elite, can easily be won to racist and
xenophobic ideas by populists appealing to traditions of British nationalism. The British Left has an excellent history of
building resistance to fascists and racists when they appear on our
streets. But we have not had the
strength or the unity to build a mass social movement within working class
communities which is capable of providing a compelling alternative to the
racism and reactionary nationalism pedaled by mainstream Leave politicians like
Farage, Gove and Johnson.
The Ruling Class in Crisis?
Events during the two weeks following Brexit
certainly felt like a major political crisis.
Within 48 hours the value of the £ and the stock market crashed, Cameron
resigned, the leaders of the Brexit campaign stabbed each other in the
back, far right populists throughout
Europe rushed to endorse the leave vote and call for the break-up of the EU and
the Blairites launched their coup attempt against Jeremy Corbyn. The political elite seemed to flounder and
divide as it became clear there was no strategy for leaving the EU.
Two months later things are starting to look less
febrile. It is far too early to judge
the economic and political impact of Brexit but we can already discern some
pointers to the nature of the political crisis we face. And again they do not seem to confirm the
optimistic scenario predicted by Lexit. The ruthless speed with which the Tory party
ousted the Cameron / Osborne clique and regrouped around Theresa May seemed to
stun some observers. Although it was easily predictable before the referendum
for anyone not blinded by Lexit ultra leftism:
“In
short if there is no evidence that the Tories are falling apart ……. talk of
disarray amongst the ruling class and opportunities for socialists after a
Brexit is misleading to say the least. All the evidence suggests that the
most likely scenario following a Brexit is a rejuvenated hard right Tory / UKIP
government with the solid backing of key sections of the British ruling class.
Socialist should never underestimate the class consciousness of our ruling
elite. Current rhetorical divisions will largely melt away following a Brexit.” http://craiglewiis138.blogspot.co.uk/
In the weeks
following the vote, the Tory party has shown no sign of “falling apart”. Socialists Worker’s lead prediction the week
after the referendum that “The British
ruling class is in chaos – and the Tory civil war over the European Union
referendum is escalating” now looks a little premature to say the least.
A number of factors suggest that, to the extent there
is a political crisis, it is one that the ruling elite are moving swiftly to
control and steer to their advantage. Theresa May’s government reflects a
triumph for the hard nationalist right of the Tory party. May herself is from the authoritarian wing
despite lukewarm support for remaining in the EU. Supporters of a “hard
Brexit”, which sacrifices access to the Single Market in order to “regain
control” over immigration, are in charge of EU negotiations along with future foreign
and trade relations. Despite the rhetoric about doing something for those “left
behind”, the early signals suggest a government intent on using the shock of
Brexit to deepen the neoliberal, free market offensive on working people. Cuts
in Corporation tax, relaxing bank regulations and restarting quantitative
easing all benefit the wealthy at the expense of working class living
standards. As does pushing ahead with
the Trade Union Act further eroding trade unions’ ability to protect members’
pay and conditions. In a gesture of total contempt for those “left behind” selective
Grammar Schools in England will be expanded. May’s government is to press ahead
with abolition the Human Rights Act. Whilst
keeping Jeremy Hunt in charge of the NHS is the best indication yet that the
assault on public services will continue with renewed vigour.
Just as there is no real sign of the British ruling
class falling apart, the predicted collapse of the EU seems equally elusive. Brexit has certainly been welcomed on the
European far right, with calls from the likes of Marine LePen in France, Gert
Wilders in Holland and the neo-Nazis in Hungary for exit referendums. But there is no real sign of the much
forecast contagion spreading across other member states. If anything popular
support for the EU has hardened since 23 June in the largest EU states as the
potential economic impact of Brexit on living standards, jobs and free movement
have become more apparent. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN1002A0 .
Nor has the European radical left shown much sign of
following Lexit in abandoning internationalism and welcoming a right-wing led
British exit - with the exception of a few electorally insignificant far left
groups such as Antarsya in Greece. For
instance Portugal’s Left Bloc, at its convention earlier this month, denounced
the EU institutions as anti-democratic and committed itself to fighting Troika led austerity, even if that means
leaving the Euro. But asserted that Europe is a key terrain of struggle for
Socialists resisting neoliberalism. For them it is as important as the national
struggle. Speaking at the Convention’s closing session Catarina Martins said:
“But we never stopped
affirming — nor shall we ever — that the European space is a space for the
struggle of the left. We find people, movements, parties that are our people,
and it is with these forces that we want to conquer the power of Brussels and Berlin.”
The Economic Impact of Brexit
Most Lexit supporters are reluctant to address the
potential economic impact of Brexit on working class people. At the SWP’s
Marxism event for instance Alex Callinicos, a leading member of the SWP,
dismissed predictions of the likely impact on jobs, living standards and growth
as mere “speculation”. At this early
stage of Brexit this is partially true. And we must always be wary that much
mainstream media prediction reflects special pleading from various sections of
British capitalism seeking to lobby politicians in advance of the exit process.
Also in discussing the referendum’s economic
implications, it is important to set Brexit in the context of a structural
crisis facing global capitalism reflected in persistently falling profit rates A crisis which one Marxist economist calls
“the Long Depression”. Since the
financial crisis workers’ living standards in the UK have fallen further than
any other EU country except Greece. But
this was not caused by the EU, where most countries have seen a slight rise in
living standards over the same period, nor by Brexit. It was the culmination of ruthless policies
of austerity, cuts, privatisation and attacks on trade unions pursued by
successive UK governments over more than 30 years, as they struggled to restore
profitability at the expense of working people.
(Michael Roberts 2016).
Nevertheless some clear trends are emerging which
suggest Brexit will compound the effects of this crisis on the very people who
voted for leave in such large numbers. The falling £, rising stock markets,
falling interest rates and planned cuts in private sector investment are not
abstract phenomena. They impact on the
daily lives of workers through their effects on, jobs, pension scheme deficits,
business takeovers, funds “repatriated” from Brussels, despite recent pledges
for some sectors such as HE and Agriculture. Moreover it is hard to see access
to the single market being replaced by trade agreements with China, the US,
India or anywhere else without further downward pressure on UK wages and
working conditions to ensure competitiveness. In designing a response to the
current political situation, the left should not dismiss such economic factors.
They directly impact on the ability of working people and their organisations
to fightback.
How should
the Left Respond?
For all the
reasons outlined above, it is highly unlikely that Brexit will lead to the kind
of spontaneous intensification of class struggle that Left Leave advocates
anticipate. The Tories have swiftly regrouped
and all the signs are that they will continue to pursue a reactionary
anti-working class agenda. The ruling
class is not yet in anything resembling a crisis, although it is clearly
divided over how to resolve the long term decline of profitability within
western capitalism. To the extent that the Leave vote was a revolt of the
poorest sections of the working class, it is a revolt led by reactionary
nationalism and racism. The radical left has not been strong enough to
counteract this.
Such
conclusions are of course denounced as pessimism by the Leave supporting left.
But if socialists do not correctly characterise the situation we face then we
will develop strategies that make no sense to the mass of working people and
leave us sitting on the side-lines as events unfold. Worse we may in consequence demoralise and
deactivate the very workers and activists who must take the struggle forward. Unity
on the left needs to be built urgently. But those comrades and left groups who
voted Leave need to recognise that they got it horribly wrong, and stop trying
to retrospectively justify their mistakes.
Those on the
left who voted remain did so for progressive reasons. To resist the poisonous
nationalism and racism of the mainstream Leave campaign. To avoid giving a boost to the emergent far
right across Europe. To defend the workplace and environmental protections
underpinned by EU law. To protect freedom of movement and the rights of migrant
workers. And to assert and build international solidarity between those resisting
austerity and neoliberalism throughout Europe. To characterise the majority of
the working class who took such a progressive stance as a remote metropolitan
elite is ultra-left nonsense. We need a
serious debate on the left around what some have called “transitional demands
and actions” that can halt the shift to the right post Brexit and develop
reforms and political spaces that start to challenge capitalism not just manage
it. That debate of course must take
place within the immediate struggles we face in the aftermath of the Leave vote.
Len Arthur: http://lenarthur01.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/from-here-to-socialism-bridging-gap-2013.html)
In England
and Wales socialists face two key struggles. Both are defensive and result from
the rightward shift in UK politics following Brexit. In the first place we need to defend our
communities from the explosion in racist attacks since the referendum. The UK
Left responded quickly and decisively to the rise in race hatred following the
vote. The joint Peoples Assembly and Stand Up to Racism demonstration in July
pointed the way forward, and since then there have been local mobilisations
throughout the country wherever the EDL or other far right groups have tried to
mobilise - from Southampton to Edinburgh. But the left must urgently come to
terms with the fact that racism and xenophobia is embedded in some of the
poorest working class communities. It is something that must be confronted and
not glossed over as a secondary issue. As a minimum the Left should make no concessions
to anti-migrant sentiment or compromise over free movement of labour. Some confused arguments have surfaced from
Lexit supports over this. The CP for
instance argues that free movement cannot be unequivocally supported because it
is a product of the EU Single Market and holds down wages in receiving
countries. But the answer to low pay and pressure on public services is an end
to austerity, increased public spending and the restoration of free collective
bargaining for trade unions. Trying to
find a left compromise with mainstream Brexit demands for immigration controls
will only fuel racism and xenophobia.
Obviously
the second key issue around which the left must unite is defence of Jeremy
Corbyn’s Labour Party leadership. The issue here is not just careerism or
opportunism in the Labour Party. A
defeat for Corbyn will be a generational defeat for the radical left (in
England and Wales at least). The
neoliberal consensus that developed over the last 30 years and the long term
profit crisis of capitalism which spawned it, has hollowed out the Labour Party
and removed the economic basis for social democratic reform on which it was
founded. A Corbyn led Labour Party with
a clear anti-austerity and progressive agenda cannot therefore be a return to
old style social democracy. It is
potentially much more significant than that.
It could provide opportunities for the radical left to develop new
transitional demands and actions of the type mentioned above. Demands and actions that can both halt the
post Brexit shift to the right and open the way for genuinely transformative
reforms which challenge the power of capital. But for this to happen the radical left must
actively work to ensure the movement around Corbyn develops beyond the Labour
Party into a social movement embedded in workplaces and communities, linking
parliamentary and extra parliamentary activity and struggle. It must not be refocussed on internal Labour
Party battles.
Challenges
for the Left in Post-Brexit Scotland
In Scotland the
Lexit debate poses additional challenges for the radical left. The overwhelming 62% majority for Remain has led
to speculation about a second independence referendum. There is not hard evidence
yet of a sustained increase in support for independence. Nevertheless sections
of the SNP are pressing for a second independence campaign sooner rather than
later, and the Scottish Greens have already launched their Indyref2
campaign. If a second independence
referendum does emerge, a revival of something like the Radical Independence
Campaign will be essential. Not just to
provide a progressive vision of an Independent Scotland; but also to challenge
the rightward drift of the SNP as it seeks to present a pro-business case for
independence aimed at middle class “No voters” who supported Remain.
But uniting
in a revived RIC will be a major problem for the Scottish radical left. As yet there has been little debate on this,
but Lexit supporters already plan to make a Scottish EU exit central to any
future Indyref2 campaign. In language not untypical of the whole Lexit debate,
a left wing academic from Glasgow University recently denounced the
“Europhilia” and “fake internationalism” of those on the Scottish left who
supported a remain position and asserted:
“… we must argue for Indyref 2 and for a new referendum on EU membership
in which the actual nature of the EU can openly be discussed” (Davidson 2016 –
my emphasis)
Following
the overwhelming endorsement of EU membership in Scotland, it is hard to see how such a strategy can have much appeal
outside political academia. As one of
the current candidates for depute leader of the SNP recently put it:
“The possibility of a second independence referendum
is predicated upon the constitutional outrage of Scotland being taken out of
the EU against the wishes of the people who live here”. (Tommy Sheppard)
If
therefore, as seems likely, a further EU referendum in Scotland does not happen,
where would that leave the Lexit Left? Having
denied that the EU can ever be a terrain of struggle for socialists, they
cannot with any degree of credibility join with others on the Left in support
of a radical vision of Scottish Independence which accepts Scotland remaining
in the European Union. Presumably under
those circumstances Lexit comrades must argue that Scotland is “better
together” with a post Brexit UK dominated by the politics of right-wing
nationalism. Such is the hole they have
dug for themselves.
Additional references:
Michael Roberts: The Long Depression, How it happened,
Why it happened, And what happens next, Haymarket 2016.
Tom Sheppard: 45%+62% = indyref2, Scottish Left
Review, July/August 2016
Neil
Davidson: Scotland after
Brexit, Jacobin magazine, July 2016
